The press has been awash with coup stories, claims and counter claims. Thistalk, however, is diversionary and masks the real fundamental issues facing usas a country.
Indeed, the coup talk is potentially disruptive and counterproductive.
Suffice to state that the long and odious struggle of NRM has been to moveUganda from dictatorship to democracy, however imperfect it may be, democracyit is all the same.
What would be the implications of this gigantic reversal of the politicalcourse? By the way, people should not confuse a people’s popular uprising witha coup. A popular uprising is a legitimate people’s struggle whereas a coup isan illegitimate anti people activity.
This is, however, a discussion for another day where I have covered thenature of the current clash between Parliament and Executive and showing theinevitability of it in ideological terms.
The central issue, however, that is facing us and indeed staring us in ourfaces, which I think is causing all these frictions is how to manage thedifferent political forces that are taking central stage in the country. When agovernment has been in power for 27 uninterrupted years, it becomes inevitablethat people will start asking questions about service delivery, aboutaccountability, about crime etc, and ultimately will start demanding for changeof some sort. It’s only natural.
The central role of leaders therefore, is to confront, head on, the complexissue of how to manage these changes. Many failures often, result from thetendency of the people who are in charge, keeping their heads down in denialabout this fact.
Often times, precious time and opportunity is lost in this procrastinationand dilly dallying. So all this turmoil we see today, especially among thepolitical actors and between the different state institutions in an inevitableconsequence of maturity (coming of age) of a system which requires a clearlyset out ideological and political frame work.
This is the ideological issue and the core question of our time. And how wehandle this central issue will determine how Uganda as a country and theEastern African region will be, not in the next 20 or 30 years, but may bethree years or less. This is what faces us and must guide us in the choices wemake today.
The other issue that must be confronted and resolved is what I may termgenerational gridlock; this basically refers to generational roles andpositioning of the different generational political/military actors in thepolitical dispensation now and in the future.
There are four generations which can be said to be active in the currentpolitical life of the country. The first is that of independence struggle era.These are people who participated in the independence struggle or were part ofthe political process immediately after independence. This group is representedby elders like our wazei Kintu Musoke, Kirunda Kivejinja, Bidandi Ssali, MiriaObote, Rhoda Kalema, and Joyce Mpanga, Honorable Henry Kajura, Moses Ali andothers.
The second category is that which cut its political teeth, so to speak,during the turbulent post independence years. This group is led by HisExcellency the President, with elders Honorable Eriya Kategaya, Tarsis Kabwegyere,Sam Kutesa, Kahinda Otafiire, Amama Mbabazi, Edward Sekandi, FredrickSsempebwa, John Katende, Richard Kaijuka, Amanya Mushega, Tumusiime Mutebire,Ruhakana Rugunda and others.
The third category is the generation of those who were still in school untilthe overthrow of Idi Amin. This group comprises majority of the currentcorporate class like Dr. Simon Kagugube, Onyango Obbo etc, Generals, EllyTumwine, David Sejusa, Nyakairima Aronda etc, people like Miria Matembe, Prof.Ntambirweki, Mugisha Muntu, Dr. Kizza Besigye, Richard Butera and many of themiddle aged professors, MPs and military generals you hear of today.
The fourth category is the category of post NRM/NRA bush war. These I cansafely term as the children of the revolution. Though this has two segments,they can be joined, for their political and social outlook has been determinedor influenced by the same circumstances.
These are the young people like late Noble Mayombo, Andrew Mwenda, RobertKabushenga, Norbert Mao etc. To this group we can add up many youngprofessionals in many fields today. People like a young Kampala lawyer, EriasLukwago, Theodore Ssekikubo, Abdu Katuntu, Frank Tumwebaze, Richard Todwongetc.
The reason I am raising this, rather unfamiliar subject is the centrality ofthe generational positioning which may have a profound impact on the wholeequation of any change management. The leaders must start focusing on thisquestion if they have to avoid friction and discontent by failure to appreciatethe generational gridlock. This is however, a different subject all togetherwhich should highlight the crucial importance of the matter on the orderlyfunctioning of society in the process of the management of change.
The third component that we must confront is the role of the military in themanagement of the State. Will it remain an embodiment of the aspirations of thepeople from which it derives its legitimacy and power or will it try to subvertthe power of the people and by so doing loose its historic pro people positionwhich would of course result in its collapse and inevitable defeat, for thepeople always win no matter how long it may take. This is in fact why this couptalk is dangerous.
The last point concerns our opposition politicians. Have they discussed ordo they even know what part to play or even how to position themselves in thisinevitable national process? Do they have the ideological depth to manageconstructively the rather complex dynamics of moving a system from democraticcentralism to liberal democracy without disrupting the social and politicalcohesion of the state? For instance, what is the ideological foundation of“Walk to Work” campaign? What is its end state as we say in the military? It isrevolutionary in intent or evolutionary? That is, does it aim at sweeping awaythe current government or reform it? I hope they even fully understand themechanisms of political warfare vice visa strategy and tactics.
The last component and perhaps the most crucial of all is the role of civilsociety and the population at large. With the political and quasi-military(Mchaka mchaka/cadre training etc) empowerment they have attained in the last31 years of NRM rule (1981-2013), how will they behave if their power is challengedby the political class, be they politicians or the military?
All the above will influence the behavior of the international community anddetermine the economic situation in the country and the long term stability ofthe state and the region. These are the issues facing us as a country not thiscoups or counter coups. For in the long run they are not sustainablepolitically, socially, ideologically not even plausible in the geopoliticalsetting.
Gen. David Sejusa (a.k.a Tinyefuza)
(This letter was first published by the Daily Monitor News paper onSaturday, February 2, 2013)
